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Intense precipitation here can come from several different types of weather systems, which makes this a little tricky. There are tropical low pressure systems, but also fronts when the jet stream dips far enough south, and other conditions that cause moist surface air to rise and cool. The researchers analyzed simulations from two climate models that run with exceptionally fine spatial resolution, as those do a better job with this kind of weather. They looked at simulations run with climate forcings like CO2 and solar activity matching the historical changes since 1860, as well as baseline simulations with forcings permanently stuck in 1860 (or another year). If you pick any individual weather station, the probability of experiencing an extreme event like the one southern Louisiana saw a few weeks ago in a given year is in the neighborhood of 1-in-550. The probability of seeing an event like that somewhere in the Gulf Coast region in a given year comes down to about 1-in-30. But all of the weather station data show that these probabilities are increasing over time as extreme events have gotten stronger. vocationAccording to the model simulations, thats what we would expect to see in the region as the climate warms. They show that a rainfall event like the recent one is at least 1.4 times as likely (and probably closer to double) as it was in 1860. That means a 100-year rain event drops to at least a 70-year eventwith a new, stronger 100-year event taking its place.
For the original version including any supplementary images or video, visit http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/09/was-august-deluge-in-louisiana-worsened-by-climate-change/